| NO.946 |
| 2005/02/25 (Fri) |
| 77th Academy Predictions |
|---|
| グラミーとは違ってアカデミーは、僕にとってはまったくわからない世界。とはいうものの、今回は映画『RAY』が個人的に一押しですが、いろいろな情報を読んでみて、それなりに予想をしてみました。まあ、お遊びと思ってみてください。10部門予想しますが、２つ本命で当たれば、御の字です。(笑) （グラミーと比べて、かなり地味にひっそりと） 今回大いに参考にしたのは、前回グラミーでも参考にしたゴールドダービーのサイト。グラミーの時は、ここの予想者よりも多くを当てましたが、アカデミーはすっかりここに頼りました。特に、トム・オニールさんはグラミー主要部門を僕と同じく3部門当てたので、彼の予想を軸にたててみました。今年は、クリント・イーストウッドの『ミリオンダラー・ベイビー』がかなり話題の中心になるような気がしました。ただ主演男優はジェイミー・フォックスです！ (笑) アカデミー賞は約5800人のアカデミー会員が投票。すでに投票は終わり、後は集計を待つのみ。 アカデミー賞は2005年2月27日（日曜・アメリカ時間東部時間夜8時から＝日本時間28日月曜午前10時から）、ロスアンジェルスのコダック・シアター（キャパシティー約３３００）で行われる。生中継は、今回はアメリカABCが担当。 オスカーのオフィシャルサイト http://www.oscar.com トム・オニールの予想と解説 http://www.goldderby.com/pundents/Oscars2005/TomOneil.asp 01.BEST PICTURE "The Aviator" "Finding Neverland" 本命- "Million Dollar Baby" 対抗"Ray" "Sideways" 02. BEST DIRECTOR 本命 - Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby" Taylor Hackford, "Ray" Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake" Alexander Payne, "Sideways" 対抗Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator" 03. BEST ACTOR Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda" Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland" Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator" 対抗Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby" 本命 - Jamie Foxx, "Ray" 04. BEST ACTRESS Annette Bening, "Being Julia" Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace" Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake" 本命 - Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby" 対抗Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" 05. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Alan Alda, "The Aviator" Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways" 対抗 Jamie Foxx, "Collateral" 本命 - Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby" Clive Owen, "Closer" 06. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 本命 - Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator" Laura Linney, "Kinsey" Virginia Madsen, "Sideways" 対抗 Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda" Natalie Portman, "Closer" 07. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY "Before Sunset," screenplay by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy Ethan Hawke; story by Richard Linklater and Kim Krizan "Finding Neverland," David Magee 本命 - "Million Dollar Baby," Paul Haggis "The Motorcycle Diaries," Jose Rivera 対抗 "Sideways," Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor 08. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY "The Aviator," John Logan 本命 "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind," screenplay by Charlie Kaufman; story by Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry and Pierre Bismuth 対抗 "Hotel Rwanda," Keir Pearson and Terry George "The Incredibles," Brad Bird "Vera Drake," Mike Leigh 09. FILM EDITING 対抗 THE AVIATOR COLLATERAL FINDING NEVERLAND MILLION DOLLAR BABY 本命 RAY 10. COSTUME DESIGN 対抗 THE AVIATOR FINDING NEVERLAND LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS 本命 RAY TROY その他の部門。 ANIMATED FEATURE FILM THE INCREDIBLES SHARK TALE SHREK 2 ART DIRECTION THE AVIATOR FINDING NEVERLAND LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT CINEMATOGRAPHY THE AVIATOR HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT DIRECTING THE AVIATOR MILLION DOLLAR BABY RAY SIDEWAYS VERA DRAKE DOCUMENTARY FEATURE BORN INTO BROTHELS THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL SUPER SIZE ME TUPAC: RESURRECTION TWIST OF FAITH DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT AUTISM IS A WORLD THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY HARDWOOD MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH SISTER ROSE'S PASSION FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM AS IT IS IN HEAVEN THE CHORUS DOWNFALL THE SEA INSIDE YESTERDAY MAKEUP LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE SEA INSIDE MUSIC (SCORE) FINDING NEVERLAND HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE VILLAGE MUSIC (SONG) "Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2 "Al Otro Lado Del Rio" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES "Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS "Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA "Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS SHORT FILM (ANIMATED) BIRTHDAY BOY GOPHER BROKE GUARD DOG LORENZO RYAN SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION) EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST LITTLE TERRORIST 7:35 IN THE MORNING TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT WASP SOUND EDITING THE INCREDIBLES THE POLAR EXPRESS SPIDER-MAN 2 SOUND MIXING THE AVIATOR THE INCREDIBLES THE POLAR EXPRESS RAY SPIDER-MAN 2 VISUAL EFFECTS HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN I, ROBOT SPIDER-MAN 2 +++++ また、同じくゴールドダービーのオッズは次の通り。上から当選確率が高いとオッズメイカーが考えたもの。 GOLDDERBY ODDS ON TOP 8 RACES BEST PICTURE "Million Dollar Baby" - 4/5 "The Aviator" - Even "Sideways" - 12/1 "Ray" - 15/1 "Finding Neverland" - 50/1 BEST DIRECTOR Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby" - 4/5 Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator" - Even Alexander Payne, "Sideways" - 15/1 Taylor Hackford, "Ray" - 30/1 Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake" - 40/1 BEST ACTOR Jamie Foxx, "Ray" - Even Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby" - 7/5 Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda" - 6/1 Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator" - 8/1 Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland" - 40/1 BEST ACTRESS Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby" - 6/5 Annette Bening, "Being Julia" - 8/5 Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake" - 5/2 Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" - 30/1 Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace" - 40/1 BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby" - 7/5 Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways" - 8/5 Alan Alda, "The Aviator" - 5/1 Clive Owen, "Closer" - 6/1 Jamie Foxx, "Collateral" - 20/1 BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator" - 8/5 Virginia Madsen, "Sideways" - 5/2 Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda" - 3/1 Natalie Portman, "Closer" - 7/2 Laura Linney, "Kinsey" - 30/1 BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY "Sideways" - 8/5 "Million Dollar Baby" - 5/2 "Finding Neverland" - 3/1 "Before Sunset" - 5/1 "The Motorcycle Diaries" - 8/1 BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" - 5/2 "The Incredibles" - 3/1 "The Aviator" - 7/2 "Hotel Rwanda" - 4/1 "Vera Drake" - 4/1 +++++ ENT>AWARD>ACADEMY>77th Predictions |
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